Price development in the Stock Indices continues to want to go higher.  The problem with the current trend is the structure continues to weaken.  As you will see in the Briefing, unless more instruments that make up the Indices begin to participate in the rally, it will not be sustainable.  It is always a higher probability for price to correct to the internals.  However, I must state there is always a possibility the internals will correct to price but that is typically around a news event.  If and when the selling begins, I have outlined extremely important lower support levels.  If those levels are broken, theyRead More →

While the Stock Indices push higher in terms of price, market breadth continues to decline, new highs declined for the last three weeks, volume is declining, the volume weighted average price declined and there are glaring inter-market divergences.  The Indices tightened even more on Friday and it suggests there will be a large move in the offing.  Either the all-time highs are a false breakout that will be quickly retraced due to the deterioration of the internals, or the internals will strengthen to support price.  I suspect the probabilities of strengthening internals are very low.    This breakout move in the Stock Indices is very concerningRead More →

This has been a very active month for me.  A physical move and then issues getting my systems back up and running have proved challenging.  In any event, the July Newsletter, that should have been posted two weeks ago, is now available.  You can access it by clicking the link below. The Markets in Development NewsletterRead More →

The development of price in the Stock Indices is strong and wants to go higher.  Thursday saw the markets tightening, as discussed in the Briefing and the expected breakout came after the employment numbers on Friday.  At this point the upper limits of the S&P are being tested.  However, the Indices reached a point of being extremely overbought by the end of trading on Friday.  This suggests some type of rotation down to work off the overbought condition.  There is a chance traders will come back on Monday and feel the rally on Friday was overdone and selling could ensue.  However, how any rotation down developsRead More →

I spent a little extra time this weekend to give a trade lesson in analyzing the Stock Indices using price development and price structure.  I feel what is occurring in stocks is extremely important because there may be a large move coming.  In fact, a break of Friday’s range may give us an indication of the direction of that break.  The Indices, for over a year, have been unable to break above recent highs.  That failure has resulted in substantial rotations down and then another test of the highs.  Eventually, this will be broken and when it is, a large move will result.  It is more difficultRead More →

If you looked at the structure of the move on Thursday, it signaled there was going to be some type of rotation down on Friday, or at least that was the higher probability.  While there was no way to predict the election outcome in Great Britain, or the behavior of market participants to that result, the Stock Indices were extremely overbought at the close on Thursday. Friday’s trading certainly saw a rotation down that may have been a little overdone.  At the close the Indices were extremely oversold.  Additionally, there were other internals that were suggesting a slight strengthening.  Therefore, I have to expect thereRead More →

I will be in the process of moving next weekend and will not be able to prepare a Briefing.  I will post one as soon as I am able to get reconnected and my systems are back up and running.  As I discussed in Thursday’s Daily Briefing to subscribers, the rally was certainly strong in terms of price development but the structure of that move was continuing to weaken.  I suggested, unless the internals strengthened, there would be some type of move back to the downside.  Friday’s trading gave us a good move lower with some of the Indices testing important short term support levels.  Additionally,Read More →

The Stock Indices have paused at a major resistance area in multiple timeframes.  This suggests a break in the short term time frame will raise the probabilities of a larger degree time and price move.  The market internals are giving some conflicting signals, so the determination of the direction of the break is not yet clear.  However, what is clear is a break of the trading range will give us the direction and it should be supported by the internals.  The tightening of the Indices is not like anything I have seen in quite some time.  This suggests to me that a good move isRead More →

I have just posted a complimentary copy of the June Markets in Development Newsletter.  You can access a copy by clicking the link below. I spend a little time outlining a possible bullish case for stocks.  While the near term is risky, there is a scenario, should it occur, that could present a tremendous buying opportunity.  But, stocks would have to correct substantially first.  The environment for stocks is suspect.  While price development wants to go higher, the internals continue to weaken.  However, there is currently a real lack of selling pressure, as demonstrated by today’s poor employment numbers and the fact the S&P wasRead More →

In yesterday’s Briefing I outlined a perfect strategy suggesting the Stock Indices should see some type of rotation down in today’s trading.  I also stated that analysis would be nullified if two things occurred.  The first was new buyers coming into the market today and moving the Indices above yesterday’s high.  The second was to see volume increase over yesterday.  That is exactly what occurred.  Once the Indices traded and held above yesterday’s high, especially in the first hour, it suggested the alternative strategy was now the higher probability.  Going into tomorrow, the Indices are still at important resistance areas and they suggest an extremeRead More →