“Successful investing begins with an analysis of where a market has found value.”

Investor beware! Trader get ready!

Below is the link to today’s Briefing.  It is a little longer tonight.  I wanted to take time to review the current structure of the Stock Indices.  While the structure continues to deteriorate, it does not preclude price from moving higher in the short term.  2140 in the S&P is a technical upside resistance area.  While that area could be tested, it will take some strengthening to do it.  Typically, that strength comes from a news event.  However, most of the news now is not positive.  When the selling begins, it will be important to analyze the development of the selling pressure to determine the extent of the potential correction.

The Markets in Development Briefing

The Markets in Development Briefing for February 19, 2015

Below is the link to today’s Briefing.  It is a little longer than normal.  I spent more time in this Briefing going over the inter-market divergences and weakening structure.  Any trend, if it is going to be sustained, must have a structure to support it.  If the structure does not support price development, then price will eventually correct.  While the internals can always change, until they do, the risk is to the downside.  I wish I could predict the exact timing of the next move to the downside because it should be a very good move, however I cannot.  All I can do is raise the warning flags that a potential move is imminent.

When and if that move begins, it will be important to analyze its development to determine the degree of timeframe of the move lower and its impact on price.

The Markets in Development Briefing

The Markets in Development Briefing for February 17, 2015

Below is the link to today’s Briefing.  The Stock Indices were slightly higher today, but the internal structure continues to deteriorate.  To me, it looks as if the professionals are doing everything they can to keep retail investors fully invested while they are divesting themselves slowly.  Volume was extremely low.  Breadth was negative.  The number of New Highs declined.  The structure of the market is screaming weakness, yet price continues to move higher.

From an environmental perspective, there are many inherent risks.  One such risk hit home today.  As most of you know the Baltic Dry Index is a measure of the goods and services being produced and shipped worldwide.  It has hit its lowest level in history.  That level caught my attention.  I have been an investor/partner in an import company here in the US for quite some time.  The company imports material from Western Europe to the East Coast of the US, so the labor disputes at the ports in California are not an impact.  Today, for the first time in many, many years the company was notified a shipment scheduled to leave Europe this week had been cancelled because they could not fill the ship.

Traders and investors should be very skeptical of the current move higher in the Stock Indices.

The Markets in Development Brieing

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“Successful investing begins with an analysis of where
a market has found value.”

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