Below is the link to the weekend Briefing.  It is always important to understand the environment of the markets we trade and invest in.  Along with that is realizing when a news event can change the development of price and the structure of that development.  While the news event on Friday was not positive, the market participants interpreted it as being good for stocks and the Indices made a substantial reversal with the S&P having almost a 60 point range for the day.  Therefore, what was the lower probability event became the higher probability as a result of that news event. Based on the above,Read More →

Below is the link to the weekend Briefing.  The reversal in the Stock Indices on Friday was significant, especially in the NASDAQ.  There should be follow through on Monday.  Consider the fact buyers had an opportunity to move the Indices higher and hold them at upper levels.  But, they were not strong enough to sustain the move.  Sellers stepped in and the range was retraced with the NASDAQ closing down over 40 points.  If buyers are not strong enough to hold current levels, sellers will begin to take control. I fully expect to see the August 24 lows tested and traded through.  In the S&PRead More →

Below is the link to the weekend Briefing.  For the past two weeks the analysis suggested the move up off of the August 24 low was a countertrend rotation, suggesting there was going to be at least one more leg down that would test and likely trade through those lows.  While the FOMC announcement could have changed that analysis, it did not.  In fact, the reaction of market participants suggest we may be in the process of beginning the next leg lower. The Indices are not oversold at this time, meaning there may be additional follow through the first part of the week before reachingRead More →

Below is the link to the weekend Briefing.  Based on the current analysis, the Stock Indices are in a countertrend rotation and should have at least one more leg down that will test and likely trade through the low of August 24.  The rotation is persistent in the time it is taking to complete.  However patience is necessary in allowing markets to develop into areas of good trade location.  Alternatively, if this countertrend rotation develops into something else to the upside, that will likely take place this week after the FOMC announcement on Thursday.  While the structure of the Indices and the price development allRead More →

Below is the link to the weekend Briefing.  Friday’s trading did give us the move lower discussed in the Thursday Briefing.  However, for analysis purposes for the coming week, it did not give us much information.  That was a result of light trading the day before a holiday weekend.  Volume was extremely low.  The analysis of the structure of the market still suggests there is more downside coming.  However, if that changes, it would then suggest the countertrend rotation up from the recent lows is not complete and there is one more leg up left before the next thrust down.  I still fully expect toRead More →

Below is the link to the weekend Briefing.  Most of the information coming from the Stock Indices through Friday suggest the rotation off the lows on Monday is countertrend to the impulsive move down.  The only indication of a continuation of the move up is the fact the Indices closed at the highs on Friday.  This suggests the possibility of a continuation of the move higher.  However, the Indices are at an extreme overbought condition and suggest at least another thrust lower to test the lows of last Monday. As I discussed in last weekend’s Briefing the Indices were extremely oversold going into the weekend,Read More →

Below is the link to the weekend Briefing.  For weeks I have been pointing out how the structure of the Stock Indices was not confirming price.  Last weekend, I posted a Blog titled Stocks Post a Series of Lower Highs.  In that post and the accompanying Briefing, I outlined how the trend is Stocks had changed to a downtrend and to expect lower prices and at least a test of 2030 in the S&Ps. The thrust lower at the end of the week was accomplished on extremely strong internals.  The only information from the Indices there may be an impending pause was the divergence inRead More →

Below is the weekend Briefing.  A trend is defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows, or lower highs and lower lows.  As you will see, in the near term, we have a series of lower highs and lower lows.  There is an inter-market divergence between the NASDAQ and the S&P as of Friday’s trading.  While Breadth has expanded nicely on the move off of the last low, volume has declined substantially.  This suggests, unless new buyers come into this market to sustain price, a potential reversal may be in the offing.  Also, new lows expanded last week and new highs declined.  Therefore,Read More →

Below is the link to the weekend Briefing.  The Stock Indices sold off on Friday after the employment numbers.  However, going into the low of the day there was an internal strengthening suggesting some type of move back up was in the offing.  That is exactly what occurred Friday afternoon going into the close.  The structure suggests there could be an additional thrust lower on Monday, since the divergence in Breadth was not great.  However, if that does occur, it will likely bring the Indices to an extreme oversold condition, which would then suggest some type of move back to the upside to work offRead More →

I was traveling all week and returned late Thursday night. As I reviewed the development of price for the week in the Stock Indices and the structure of that development, I was extremely surprised. The S&P moved right into the 2125 area, but it did it on declining volume, declining breadth, the number of new lows exploding and declining volume increasing over advancing volume. In other words, a few tech stocks were carrying a speculative move in price development that was not being supported by the rest of the market. The structure of the move was weakening fast, leaving no other alternative but a moveRead More →