The longer term development of price in the Stock Indices suggests we may be at the beginning of another rotation down to test the 1800 area in the S&P.  I also venture to say, if that occurs, the probabilities are such that it will likely be traded through.  The structure of price development going into the recent 2110 high in the S&P was weak and weakening, as I discussed in the Daily Briefings.  Short term, the move lower appears to be impulsive, at least in the NASDAQ.  Inter-market divergences still exist and they give me some concern, as they are sending conflicting signals that this mayRead More →

The rotation down in the Stock Indices is still inconclusive as to whether it is the beginning of something greater in terms of time and price.  There was much conflicting information coming from the markets on Friday.  There is an inter-market divergence between the S&P, NASDAQ and the Russell, with the Russell showing more strength, which is unusual.  Breadth in both the S&P and NASDAQ divergence greatly going into Friday’s low, and the moving averages of Breadth actually rose, as the NASDAQ sold off 32 points.  Volume increased slightly on the selloff but not to the extent that I would call the move impulsive.  TheRead More →

 From a price development perspective, the Stock Indices appear to be completing a greater degree rotation higher that is correcting an impulsive move lower to test the 1800 area in the S&P.  The structure of the move is not strong and appears to be weakening, as the S&P approaches the upper extreme.  This does not preclude the Indices from testing the upper extremes, which could occur in the coming week.    As you will see in the Briefing, the Indices appear to be in rotation at an important Key Reference Area.  I have found in the past that if they pause near important resistance or supportRead More →

I am making The Markets in Development Newsletter available for the next couple of months.  You can access the letter that has just been posted by clicking the link below. The Stock Indices reversed today and traded down to extremely important support.  As discussed in the weekend Briefing, what happens from here could be very important.  However, if there is going to be a break below support, it needs to go and not look back. The Markets in Development Newsletter for April 2016Read More →

The Stock Indices are undecided as to whether they will break to the downside and test the recent lows (1800 in the S&P) or break to the upside and test the recent highs (2110 in the S&P).  Short term there is much volatility with wide range days, going from extremely oversold one day to extremely overbought another.  Breadth on Thursday was very negative and just the opposite on Friday.  Volume is increasing with the volatility, giving us no indication as to whether buyers or sellers are able to gain control of price development.  When it is resolved, there will be a large move.  While theRead More →

While Yellen’s comments seem to continue to give the Stock Indices fuel to extend the rally, it appears the tank is getting close to empty once again.  From a price development perspective, the Indices have the potential to test the most recent highs.  In the S&P that would be the 2110 area.  However, the structure of the rally is weak and weakening.    On Friday the S&P rallied from a substantial loss to close up 13.5 points.  The NASDAQ closed up over 50 points, after a good loss at the open.  The important aspect is the NASDAQ breadth was barely positive and the NYSE breadth wasRead More →

In Wednesday’s Briefing I outlined the short term oversold condition of the Stock Indices.  While I allowed for the potential for a lower low on Thursday, that would signal the higher probability of some type of move back up to work off the oversold condition.  Longer term, the move down from resistance is developing impulsively.  However, short term there is some indication there could be one more move up to test the recent highs. The Indices closed at their highs on Thursday.  This suggests additional buying could come in on Monday.  If that occurs, watch the internals carefully.  There is a chance it could beRead More →

The Briefing is slightly longer than I prefer, but I wanted to be sure to explain the current development of the Stock Indices clearly.    Longer term, the Indices are in a countertrend rotation that is greater in degree of time and price since the selloff that occurred taking the S&P down to the 1800 area.  While the NASDAQ could still have some upside, the S&P, for all intents and purposes, has completed all of the characteristics of a greater degree timeframe move.  With that said, short term the structure of the move up last week did strengthen.  Therefore, either the move continues to strengthen nextRead More →

The Stock Indices have fulfilled, for all intents and purposes, the characteristics of a countertrend move that is greater in degree of time and price.  While there is still some upside potential in terms of price, the Indices are at an extreme overbought condition.  Volume is very low.  There are glaring intermarket divergences between the S&P, NASDAQ and Russell.  Unless they strengthen from a structural perspective, the next leg down could begin at any time.  If there is a strengthening, which is always a possibility, then it would open the probability for the S&P to test 2112 and then 2135.  As you will see inRead More →

The Stock Indices appear to still be in a countertrend rotation that is greater in both degree of time and price.  In the Briefing, I discuss the fact the 1800 low in the S&P was not the completion of the first impulsive move, as I first thought.  The NASDAQ tells a different story.  The NASDAQ reveals the second test of 1800 in the S&P was the completion of the countertrend move, not the second leg of a countertrend rotation.  As a result, this allows the characteristics of the rotation up to complete at important resistance in the 2030 area.  You will see in the Briefing theRead More →